A group of researchers has claimed that quantum computers can now crack the encryption we use to protect emails, bank accounts and other sensitive data. Although this has long been a theoretical possibility, existing quantum computers weren't yet thought to be powerful enough to threaten encryption.

Hence, it is considered post-quantum computing resistant.” A 2019 Kryptera research paper estimated that a quantum computer capable of more than 6,600 logical, error-corrected qubits would be required to break AES-256 encryption.

Shor’s Algorithm is an algorithm for finding the prime factors of large numbers in polynomial time. In cybersecurity, a common encryption technique is RSA (Rivest–Shamir–Adleman). RSA is based on a public key that is the product of two large prime numbers that are kept secret. RSA is based on the assumption that a computer won’t be able to factor a very large number into its prime components, as factoring is a very different kind of problem-solving compared to addition or multiplication. Shor’s algorithm takes advantage of quantum mechanical properties of superposition and interference to quickly search through possible solutions, though the method could potentially be performed on a classical computer, over a much larger time frame. 

For example, according to Thorsten Kleinjung of the University of Bonn, it would take 1 or 2 years to factor N = 13506641086599522334960321627880596993888147560566702752448514385152651060485953383394028715057190944179820728216447155137368041970396491743046496589274256239341020864383202110372958725762358509643110564073501508187510676594629205563685529475213500852879416377328533906109750544334999811150056977236890927563 on a 2.2 GHz Athlon 64 CPU PC with ≤ 2 GB memory.

Shor’s Algorithm is a powerful tool with the potential to factor any prime number, granting its wielder the ability to break many current encryptions. While today’s NISQ quantum computers are not yet sufficient to break the RSA encryption, experts estimate that within a few years, this could be possible. Indeed, Shor’s algorithm sparked significant interest in quantum computers. 

While some predict that Shor’s Algorithm will be able to run on quantum annealing devices - non-universal quantum computers with only specialized optimization applications - within 10 years, there are many factors that go into this calculation. This is assuming that every other year the number of annealing qubits will double, as has happened in the past, but we mustn't fully rely on this calculation. Annealing qubit advancements could be hindered by various roadblocks slowing this timeframe, or ongoing research in annealing or universal quantum computing could result in breakthroughs revealing better algorithms or technologies to speed this process up.

This uncertainty in the time frame, as well as the intensity of RSA encryption being rendered useless, has gained attention from adjacent fields and governments alike. A recent United States Executive Order establishing a timeline for creating standards and frameworks for post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and developing quantum-resistant algorithms demonstrates how serious this security breach could be. Where there is data, there is a need for security. CIOs/CTOs from enterprises all over the world are investing in quantum after learning of the impact of Shor’s Algorithm, oftentimes strengthening quantum competencies with other applications and gaining an advantage over those who wait to begin their quantum journey. For example, UnitedHealth Group has quantum teams on three continents, and they’ve begun investigating artificial intelligence applications with quantum machine learning after their start in quantum cryptography.

Six years after it first announced its post-quantum cryptography standardization project, the National institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has revealed the first four algorithms to make the grade.

The PQC Timeline

Launched in 2016, NIST made an open call to the world’s cryptographers to submit candidate algorithms that would be resistant to attacks by future quantum computers. The deadline for the original submissions was 30 November 2017 and by the end of that year NIST had announced it had accepted a total of 69 submissions.

In January 2019 NIST announced 26 candidates had made it through to the second round of evaluation. By July 2020 this had been narrowed down to 7 third round finalists and 8 alternates. With this month’s announcement we are one step closer to the final published standards, which are expected in 2024.

Commenting on the announcement, US Secretary of Commerce had this to say:

“Today’s announcement is an important milestone in securing our sensitive data against the possibility of future cyberattacks from quantum computers. Thanks to NIST’s expertise and commitment to cutting-edge technology, we are able to take the necessary steps to secure electronic information so U.S. businesses can continue innovating while maintaining the trust and confidence of their customers.”

“Our post-quantum cryptography program has leveraged the top minds in cryptography, worldwide, to produce this first group of quantum-resistant algorithms that will lead to a standard and significantly increase the security of our digital information.

These algorithms are the first 4 of what will constitute the preliminary post-quantum cryptography standards. The primary algorithms, which NIST recommends be implemented in most cases are based on module lattices. They comprise:

- 1 CRYSTALS-Kyber – an IND-CCA2 secure key encapsulation mechanism based on the hardness of solving the Learning With Errors (LWE) problem over module lattices.

- 2 CRYSTALS-Dilithium – a digital signature scheme also based on the hardness of mathematical problems over module lattices.

Two other digital signature algorithms are also standardized:

- 3 FALCON – a lattice-based digital signature scheme that utilises the short integer solution over NTRU lattices. FALCON has smaller signatures sizes and can be used when the size of the signature is an issue.

- 4 SPHINCS+ – a stateless, hash-based signature scheme. SPHINCS+ has an excellent security record. It provides a digital signature scheme based on a totally different hard problem. Its large signature size may restrict its use to specific cases.

In addition, NIST has launched a fourth round, in order to standardize at least one more algorithm for key exchange, which will not be based on lattices. The four algorithms selected for this fourth round are: BIKE, Classic McEliece, HQC and SIKE. This will ensure a variety of hard problems, in the unlikely case that lattice-based systems fail in the future. The case of Rainbow, which was one of the finalists of Round 3, but was recently broken, is a sobering reminder that the security of any new scheme is not absolute.

NIST has also announced a future new Call for Proposals for different digital signature algorithms. The aim is to reduce the size of the keys and increase the diversity of the possible schemes.

One of which is breaking the RSA cryptography. Based on a 2048-bit number, the RSA encryption algorithm is widely utilised for sending sensitive information over the internet. As per industry experts, quantum computers would need 70 million qubits to break the encryption.

Quantum computing is based on quantum mechanics, which governs how nature works at the smallest scales. The smallest classical computing element is a bit, which can be either 0 or 1. The quantum equivalent is a qubit, which can also be 0 or 1 or in what's called a superposition — any combination of 0 and 1. Performing a calculation on two classical bits (which can be 00, 01, 10 and 11) requires four calculations. A quantum computer can perform calculations on all four states simultaneously. This scales exponentially: 1,000 qubits would, in some respects, be more powerful than the world's most powerful supercomputer.

The promise of quantum computing, however, is not speeding up conventional computing. Rather, it will deliver an exponential advantage for certain classes of problems, such as factoring very large numbers, with profound implications for cybersecurity.

Qubits, however, are inherently unstable. Interaction between a qubit and its surroundings degrades information in microseconds. Isolating qubits from the environment, for example, by cooling them close to absolute zero, is challenging and expensive. Noise increases with qubit count, requiring complex error correction approaches.

The other quantum concept central to quantum computing is entanglement, whereby qubits can become correlated such that they are described by a single quantum state. Measure one and you instantaneously know the state of the other. Entanglement is important in quantum cryptography and quantum communication.

Quantum computing, and prosaic quantum technology, promise to transform cybersecurity in four areas: 

1. Quantum random number generation is fundamental to cryptography. Conventional random number generators typically rely on algorithms known as pseudo-random number generators, which are not truly random and thus potentially open to compromise. Companies such as Quantum Dice and IDQuantique are developing quantum random number generators that utilize quantum optics to generate sources of true randomness. These products are already seeing commercial deployment.

2. Quantum-secure communications, specifically quantum key distribution (QKD). Sharing cryptographic keys between two or more parties to allow them to privately exchange information is at the heart of secure communications. QKD utilizes aspects of quantum mechanics to enable the completely secret exchange of encryption keys and can even alert to the presence of an eavesdropper. QKD is currently limited to fiber transmission over 10s of kilometers, with proofs of concept via satellite over several thousand kilometers. KETS Quantum Security and Toshiba are two pioneers in this field.

3. The most controversial application of QC is its potential for breaking public-key cryptography, specifically the RSA algorithm, which is at the heart of the nearly $4 trillion ecommerce industry. RSA relies on the fact that the product of two prime numbers is computationally challenging to factor. It would take a classical computer trillions of years to break RSA encryption. A quantum computer with around 4,000 error-free qubits could defeat RSA in seconds. However, this would require closer to 1 million of today's noisy qubits. The world's largest quantum computer is currently less than 100 qubits; however, IBM and Google have road maps to achieve 1 million by 2030. A million-qubit quantum computer may still be a decade away, but that time frame could well be compressed. Additionally, highly sensitive financial and national security data is potentially susceptible to being stolen today — only to be decrypted once a sufficiently powerful quantum computer becomes available. The potential threat to public-key cryptography has engendered the development of algorithms that are invulnerable to quantum computers. Companies like PQShield are pioneering this post-quantum cryptography.

4. Machine learning has revolutionized cybersecurity, enabling novel attacks to be detected and blocked. The cost of training deep models grows exponentially as data volumes and complexity increase. Open AI's GPT-3 used as much carbon as a typical American would use in 17 years. The emerging field of quantum machine learning may enable exponentially faster, more time- and energy-efficient machine learning algorithms. This, in turn, could yield more effective algorithms for identifying and defeating novel cyberattack methods.

Quantum computing promises to transform cybersecurity, but there are substantial challenges to address and fundamental breakthroughs still required to be made. 

The most immediate challenge is to achieve sufficient numbers of fault-tolerant qubits to unleash quantum computing's computational promise. Companies such as IBM, Google, Honeywell and Amazon are investing in this problem.

Quantum computers are currently programmed from individual quantum logic gates, which may be acceptable for small quantum computers, but it's impractical once we get to thousands of qubits. Companies like IBM and Classiq are developing more abstracted layers in the programming stack, enabling developers to build powerful quantum applications to solve real-world problems.

Arguably, the key bottleneck in the quantum computing industry will be a lack of talent. While universities churn out computer science graduates at an accelerating pace, there is still too little being done to train the next generation of quantum computing professionals.

The United States's National Quantum Initiative Act is a step in the right direction and incorporates funding for educational initiatives. There are also some tremendous open-source communities that have developed around quantum computing — perhaps the most exciting and active being the IBM Qiskit community. It will take efforts from governments, universities, industry and the broader technology ecosystem to enable the level of talent development required to truly capitalize on quantum computing.

The quantum revolution is upon us. Although the profound impact of large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computers may be a decade off, near-term quantum computers will still yield tremendous benefits. We are seeing substantial investment in solving the core problems around scaling qubit count, error correction and algorithms. From a cybersecurity perspective, while quantum computing may render some existing encryption protocols obsolete, it has the promise to enable a substantially enhanced level of communication security and privacy.

Organizations must think strategically about the longer-term risks and benefits of quantum computing and technology and engage in a serious way today to be ready for the quantum revolution of tomorrow.

The quantum computing impact on cybersecurity is profound and game-changing, to put it in a nutshell. 

Quantum computing holds great promise in many areas, such as medical research, artificial intelligence, weather forecasting, etc. But it also poses a significant threat to cybersecurity, requiring a change in how we encrypt our data. Even though quantum computers don’t technically have the power to break most of our current forms of encryption yet, we need to stay ahead of the threat and come up with quantum-proof solutions now. If we wait until those powerful quantum computers start breaking our encryption, it will be too late. 

Another Reason to Act Now: Harvest Now, Decrypt Later

Regardless of when quantum computers will be commercially available, another reason to quantum-proof data now is the threat from nefarious actors scraping data. They are already stealing data and holding onto it until they can get their hands on a quantum computer to decrypt it. At that point, the data will have already been compromised. The only way to ensure the security of information, particularly information that needs to remain secure well into the future, is to safeguard it now with quantum-safe key delivery. 

Quantum computers will be able to solve problems that are far too complex for classical computers to figure out. This includes solving the algorithms behind encryption keys that protect our data and the Internet’s infrastructure. 

Much of today’s encryption is based on mathematical formulas that would take today’s computers an impractically long time to decode. To simplify this, think of two large numbers, for example, and multiply them together. It’s easy to come up with the product, but much harder to start with the large number and factor it into its two prime numbers. A quantum computer, however, can easily factor those numbers and break the code. Peter Shor developed a quantum algorithm (aptly named Shor’s algorithm) that easily factors large numbers far more quickly than a classical computer. Since then,  scientists have been working on developing quantum computers that can factor increasingly larger numbers.  

Today’s RSA encryption, a widely used form of encryption, particularly for sending sensitive data over the internet, is based on 2048-bit numbers. Experts estimate that a quantum computer would need to be as large as 70 million qubits to break that encryption. Considering the largest quantum computer today is IBM’s 53-qubit quantum computer, it could be a long time before we’re breaking that encryption.

As the pace of quantum research continues to accelerate, though, the development of such a computer within the next 3-5 years cannot be discounted. As an example, earlier this year, Google and the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden reportedly found “a more efficient way for quantum computers to perform the code-breaking calculations, reducing the resources they require by orders of magnitude.” Their work, highlighted in the MIT Technology Review, demonstrated that a 20 million-qubit computer could break a 2048-bit number – in a mere 8 hours. What that demonstration means is that continued breakthroughs like this will keep pushing the timeline up.

It’s worth noting that perishable sensitive data is not the main concern when it comes to the quantum encryption threat. The greater risk is the vulnerability of information that needs to retain its secrecy well into the future, such as national security-level data, banking data, privacy act data, etc. Those are the secrets that really need to be protected with quantum-proof encryption now, particularly in the face of bad actors who are stealing it while they wait for a quantum computer that can break the encryption.  

Adapting Cybersecurity to Address the Threat

Researchers have been working hard in the last several years to develop “quantum-safe” encryption. The American Scientist reported that the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is already evaluating 69 potential new methods for what it calls “post-quantum cryptography (PQC).” 

There are a lot of questions surrounding quantum computing, and scientists continue to work diligently to answer them. When it comes to the impact of quantum computing on cybersecurity, though, one thing is certain: it will pose a threat to cybersecurity and our current forms of encryption. To mitigate that threat we need to change how we keep our data secure and start doing it now. We need to approach the quantum threat as we do other security vulnerabilities: by deploying a defense-in-depth approach, one characterized by multiple layers of quantum-safe protection. Security-forward organizations understand this need for crypto agility and are seeking crypto-diverse solutions like those offered by Quantum Xchange to make their encryption quantum-safe now, and quantum-ready for tomorrow’s threats. 

Business leaders thinking about the future of their companies’ data security need only to look at the image attached to this article. A key with the potential to open the universe of digital 1’s and 0’s. The abundant research and development being applied to quantum computing promises to launch a whole new universe of computing security considerations. In this article, Joe Ghalbouni provides insight into what quantum computing is, quantum cryptography (and post-quantum cryptography) and when business leaders need to be thinking about this priority subject.

Quantum computing poses a threat on currently employed digital cryptography protocols

What is quantum computing?

Quantum computing has been at the heart of academic research, since its idea was first proposed by Richard Feynman, in order to understand and simulate quantum mechanical systems efficiently. The main idea is to make use of a quantum mechanical system in order to perform calculations. Since this system obeys the laws of quantum mechanics, it allows for an accurate simulation of a quantum system, the latter which can only be simulated classically up to a certain error factor.

Beyond this perspective, making use of purely quantum phenomena such as superposition of states, quantum parallelism and entanglement, leverage a computational potential which can allows us, for particular problems, to compute much faster. We are speaking here of orders of magnitude! The quantum bit, most commonly referred to as qubit, is the analogous of the classical bit for quantum computers. Unlike its classical counterpart, it’s not bounded to the states 0 or 1. It can be found in a superposition of both. This permits for the computing power of a quantum system to grow exponentially, each time a new qubit is added.

Among the mathematically complex problems a quantum computer promises to solve more efficiently, we denote those on which cryptographic security is solely based. Quantum computers thus are an imminent threat to currently employed cryptography protocols. But how can we address this risk and opt for a mitigation solution? Let’s start with a review on cryptography.

Classical cryptography as currently referred to in the quantum ecosystem, is based on the mathematical complexity to break encryption. While there are numerous cryptography protocols, they can be classified into three categories:

Asymmetric cryptography: each user holds what is commonly referred to as a public and a private key. For example, the public key of a user A, as its name suggests is available for everyone who wants to send an encrypted message to that particular user. By using his/her public key, other users on the network encrypt a message and send it to user A. The private key as its name suggests is private to the user A, and enables him/her to decrypt the encrypted message. The public key is created from the private key, and is equivalent to a product of prime numbers. The reverse process consisting of factorizing this number, in order to retrieve its primes, and thus deducing the private key from the public key, is considered a hard to compute problem. Notable algorithms include RSA, ECDSA, Diffie-Hellman, etc.

Symmetric cryptography: each user holds a private key used for both encryption and decryption. In order for two users A and B to securely interact, a key must be agreed upon prior to message encryption and exchange. This key has to be transferred in a secure manner to avoid any eavesdropping. Guessing a private key requires to go through trials and therefore, no method is more efficient than brute force. Notable algorithms include AES, Blowfish, DES, etc.

Hashing functions: a string input comprising a random number of characters, passes through a hashing function and comes out as an output of a fixed number of characters. This function is mathematically irreversible. A specific input, will always give the same output once it passes through the same hashing function, ensuring that we can verify that it matches when comparing to a database. Notable algorithms include SHA-2, SHA-3, MDA, etc.

Quantum Computers and the threat on Cryptography and Data

Quantum computers are believed to be more efficient than their classical counterparts at solving specific problems. Notable quantum algorithms such as Shor’s factoring algorithm and Grover’s search algorithm raise serious concerns towards current digital cryptography protocols. But how are these protocols exactly affected and what products are they tied to?

Protocols related to online banking and digital signatures: asymmetric cryptography for example, becomes very vulnerable. Shor’s algorithm allows for an efficient factorization by finding the primes that form a number. This means that private keys will be easily deduced from public keys and therefore encryption will no longer be secured. This is a main concern for RSA and ECDSA. Online banking transactions will become at risk, as well as digital signatures such as those used in cryptocurrency to verify transaction ownership. It is believed according to recent scientific articles that Shor’s algorithm will efficiently break RSA-2048 and ECDSA-160 for a respective quantum processor of 4096 qubits and 1000 qubits [1-3].

Protocols related to data and servers: symmetric cryptography will see its security level drop. Grover’s algorithm results in a more efficient search optimization than any known classical search algorithm, and can considerable reduce brute force attempts from  on average, to  (  being the possibilities). Thus in the case of AES-128, where 2128 key combinations exist, it would take Grover’s algorithm 264 operations to find it instead of 2128/2 classically. This means a 50% speed gain. This endangers any data encrypted and stored on online servers, especially if it remains of significance importance over time [1-3].

Protocols related to blockchain and cryptocurrency: hashing functions being irreversible, mean that quantum computers will not bring any advances towards decrypting them. It is simply not feasible. However, collision and birthday surprise attacks which rely on trial of a big set, similarly to brute force methods, will become more powerful thanks to Grover’s algorithm. The speed up attainable in the search algorithm will make it easier to find the right input for a given hash function’s output. For example, SHA-256 which maps an output of 256 bits, imply 2256 possibilities requiring classically on average 2256/2 trials to find the right combination. Grover’s algorithm will reduce this to  trials [1-3]. This indicated a 50% speedup. While it’s still a big number, it reduces the bit security level to half of its original value and is something to keep in mind. Hashing functions are extensively used in cryptocurrencies and any vulnerability that can target the blocks in the public ledger, needs to be addressed. Although, when dealing with a distributed ledger, any modification in the block can be corrected right away by the majority of the nodes.    

Quantum Computing Timeline

What about the timeline? How much time do we still have to become prepared? Although universal quantum computers that can run these powerful algorithms, and that comprise inherently stabilized qubits might take a couple of decades to see the light, it still is a short period of time. Being quantum ready requires training of personnel at different levels (top managers, IT, HR,…) as well as recruiting the right people for the right positions.

The quantum ecosystem is constantly evolving and maturing, and following the latest advances is crucial in order to invest both time and money in the right place and at the right moment. Also, quantum algorithms are constantly being developed and only require those universal quantum computers to be put to the final test. Simulators allow us already to fully understand for a few qubits how they work. Scaling an algorithm to a bigger number of qubits is, most of the time, pretty straight forward. Once available on the market, fault tolerant quantum computers can be operational right away.

On the technical practicality, what should businesses do?

Businesses must assess the risk present on their data and cybersecurity by quantum experts. The reports will indicate how safe the system is and for which estimated period of time. From there, companies will have to put in place a long term strategy to go towards one of two solutions, or a mix between them: quantum proof algorithms or purely quantum protocols.

Quantum proof algorithms saw the light after the National Institute of Standards and Technologies (NIST) launched an ongoing competition to pick a newly designed quantum safe encryption protocol. At the moment of writing this article, NIST has reached the final phase and recently released an FAQ about Quantum Computing and Cryptography [6].

With quantum algorithms constantly being developed, these quantum proof algorithms might become obsolete one day. Thus, quantum cryptography which makes use of quantum phenomena for intrinsic security and which allow us to detect the presence of an eavesdropper, might be a more appropriate and safer solution. Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) allows for a provably quantum secure scheme of private key exchange. Not only do we get over the idea of a public/private key combination, but private keys will be exchanged remotely, the latter requiring however an appropriate quantum architecture based either on optical fibers and/or satellites.

A hybrid solution could consist of injecting pure quantum randomness instead of classical pseudo-randomness when generating keys for RSA and ECDSA, or when generating passwords. When a list of those is generated all at once, it is possible for an attacker to guess the underlying function behind the pseudo-randomness and from a few elements at their disposal, figure out the whole list. Adding quantum randomness through quantum random number generators, is a good solution since quantum is intrinsically random with its measurement process.

IdQuantique is an example of a Swiss company that proposes QRNG and QKD ready solutions for implementation. We also denote similar products proposed by the Canadian and American companies evolutionQ and QuintessenceLabs.

Conclusion

Getting prepared to face the and benefit from the second Quantum revolution is a challenge. However, when well prepared, businesses can explore so many new opportunities, allowing them to fully embrace this new technology. Whether it is through correctly assessing every risk associated with Quantum Computing, on the company’s different levels, or through its change in managerial approach, businesses should start addressing the Quantum question right away, before it becomes too late!

Quantum technologies in defence & security

 

Given the potential implications of novel quantum technologies for defence and security, NATO has identified quantum as one of its key emerging and disruptive technologies. This article seeks to unpack some of the fascinating future applications of quantum technologies and their implications for defence and security.

Three quotes from three famous quantum physicists. I guess it is safe to say that there is broad consensus that trying to understand quantum mechanics is not your average Sunday morning brain teaser. However, quantum mechanics is not just mind-boggling and food for vigorous thought. In fact, although we might not be able fully to comprehend it, technologies built upon our understanding of quantum mechanics are already all around us.

Transistors and semiconductors in our computers and communication infrastructures are examples of ‘first generation’ quantum technologies. But the best is still to come. Through a greater understanding of quantum phenomena such as ‘superposition’ and ‘entanglement’ (explained below), the ‘second quantum revolution’ is now taking place, enabling the development of novel and revolutionary quantum technologies.

As these technologies will bring profound new capabilities both for civilian and military purposes, quantum technologies have received significant interest from industry and governments in recent years. Big technology companies like IBM, Google and Microsoft are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on research and development in the area of quantum computing in their race for ‘quantum supremacy’. Similarly, governments have recognised the transformative potential and the geopolitical value of quantum technology applications and the United States, the European Union and China have each set up their own >1 billion dollar research programmes.

Without going into a detailed explanation of quantum mechanics, a few key underlying principles are worth briefly discussing to help understand the potential applications of quantum technologies.

Quantum technologies exploit physical phenomena at the atomic and sub-atomic scale. Fundamental to quantum mechanics is that at this atomic scale, the world is ‘probabilistic’ as opposed to ‘deterministic’.

This notion of probability was the subject of a world-famous debate between Albert Einstein and Niels Bohr at the fifth Solvay Conference on Physics, held in October 1927 in Brussels. This conference gathered the 29 most notable physicists of the time (17 of them would later become Nobel Prize winners) to discuss the newly formulated quantum theory.

 This photograph was taken in Leopold Park in Brussels during the Fifth Solvay Conference on Physics in 1927, and is often referred to as the “most intelligent photograph ever taken”.  Photo credit: Benjamin Couprie, Institut International de Physique de Solvay.

This photograph was taken in Leopold Park in Brussels during the Fifth Solvay Conference on Physics in 1927, and is often referred to as the “most intelligent photograph ever taken”.

Photo credit: Benjamin Couprie, Institut International de Physique de Solvay.

In the so-called “debate of the century” during the 1927 Solvay Conference, Niels Bohr defended the new quantum mechanics theory as formulated by Werner Heisenberg, whereas Albert Einstein tried to uphold the deterministic paradigm of cause and effect. Albert Einstein famously put forward that “God does not play dice”, after which Niels Bohr countered “Einstein, stop telling God what to do.”

Nowadays, the scientific community agrees that Niels Bohr won the debate. This means that our world does not have a fixed script based on cause and effect but is in fact subject to chance. In other words, you can know everything there is to know in the universe and still not know what will happen next.

This new probabilistic paradigm led the way to a better understanding of some key properties of quantum particles which underlie quantum technologies, most notably ‘superposition’ and ‘entanglement’. The improved understanding of these fundamental quantum principles is what has spurred the development of next-generation quantum technologies: quantum sensing, quantum communication and quantum computing.

While quantum computing has received most of the hype around quantum technologies, a whole world of quantum sensing and quantum communication is out there, which is just as fascinating and promising.

Quantum sensors are based on ultra-cold atoms or photons, carefully manipulated using superposition or entanglement in specific ‘quantum states’. By exploiting the fact that quantum states are extremely sensitive to disturbances, quantum sensors are able to measure tiny differences in all kinds of different properties like temperature, acceleration, gravity or time.

Quantum sensing has transformative potential for our measurement and detection technology. Not only does it enable much more accurate and sensitive measurements, it also opens up possibilities to measure things we have never been able to measure before. To name a few, quantum sensors could allow us to find out exactly what lies under our feet through underground mapping; provide early-warning systems for volcanic eruptions; enable autonomous systems to ‘see’ around corners; and provide portable scanners that monitor a person’s brain activity (source: Scientific American).

While quantum technologies might seem to be technologies of the distant future, the first quantum sensors are actually already on the market (for example, atomic clocks and gravimeters). Looking ahead, we can expect more quantum sensing applications becoming available over the course of the coming five to seven years, with quantum Positioning Navigation and Timing (PNT) devices and quantum radar technologies as particular applications to look out for.

The potential of quantum communication relies on its promise to enable ‘ultra-secure’ data communication, potentially even completely unhackable. Currently, our exchange of data relies on streams of electrical signals representing ‘1s’ and 0s’ running through optical fibre cables. A hacker who manages to tap into these cables can read and copy those bits as they travel through the cable. In quantum communication on the other hand, the transmitted information is encoded in a quantum particle in a superposition of ‘1’ and ‘0’, a so-called ‘qubit’. Because of the sensitivity of quantum states to external disturbances, whenever a hacker tries to capture what information is being transmitted, the qubit ‘collapses’ to either a ‘1’ or a ‘0’ – thereby destroying the quantum information and leaving a suspicious trail.

The first application of quantum communication is called ‘Quantum Key Distribution’ (QKD) which uses quantum particles for the exchange of cryptographic keys. In QKD, the actual data is transmitted over traditional communication infrastructure using normal bits, however, the cryptographic keys necessary to decrypt the data are transmitted separately using quantum particles. Extensive experimentation in QKD is already taking place, both using terrestrial communication as well as space-based communication. In 2016, China launched the world’s first quantum science satellite ‘Micius’, which has since then demonstrated intercontinental ground-to-satellite and satellite-to-ground QKD by securing a video conference meeting between Beijing and Vienna (source).

‘Quantum teleportation’ would be the next step in quantum communication. Whereas in QKD the cryptographic keys are distributed using quantum technology, with quantum teleportation it is the information itself that is being transmitted using entangled quantum pairs. The greatest distance over which quantum teleportation has been achieved so far over fibre-optic cable is 50 kilometres (source), and the challenge in the coming years is to scale quantum teleportation to enable secure communication over larger distances.

The ultimate goal in quantum communication is to create a ‘quantum internet’: a network of entangled quantum computers connected with ultra-secure quantum communication guaranteed by the fundamental laws of physics. However, a quantum internet not only requires quantum teleportation over very large distances, it would also require the further development of other crucial enabling technologies like quantum processors, a comprehensive quantum internet stack including internet protocols and quantum internet software applications. This really is a long-term endeavour and, while it’s difficult to determine if and exactly when this technology matures, most scholars refer to a time horizon of 10-15 years.

Quantum computing will significantly increase our capacity to solve some of the most complex computational problems. In fact, quantum computing is said to be as different from classical computing, as a classical computer differs from the abacus.

As explained above, whereas classical computers perform calculations using binary digits (0 or 1), quantum computers represent information using quantum bits (qubits) which can be in a superposition of both states (0 and 1 at the same time).

As qubits are extremely sensitive to external disturbances, in order to be able to control, manipulate and exploit them, qubits need to be cooled down to a level extremely close to the absolute minimum temperature (or zero kelvin), around 15 millikelvins. That is colder than outer space! In fact, inside a quantum computer is the coldest place in the universe we know of.

 Quantum computer built by IBM: the IBM Q System One (source: Forbes). Want to listen to it? Visit this link to listen to the sounds of a quantum computer’s heartbeat.

Quantum computer built by IBM: the IBM Q System One (source: Forbes). Want to listen to it? Visit this link to listen to the sounds of a quantum computer’s heartbeat.

Qubits enable quantum computers to make multiple calculations at the same time, potentially resulting in an immense increase in computational efficiency as opposed to classical computers. There are a number of applications where quantum computers will be particularly transformational:

Simulation of physical systems for drug discovery and the design of new materials;

Solving complex optimisation problems in supply chain, logistics and finance;

Combination with artificial intelligence for the acceleration of machine learning;

Factorisation of integers, enabling the decryption of most commonly used cybersecurity protocols (e.g. RSA, an asymmetric encryption algorithm, used for secure data transmission).

Big technology companies like IBM, Google and Microsoft are racing for ‘quantum supremacy’, which is the point where a quantum computer succeeds in solving a problem that no classical computer could solve in any feasible amount of time.

In October 2019, Google claimed to have achieved quantum supremacy on its 53-qubit quantum computer. However, critics say that the problem solved in the Google experiment had no practical value and that therefore the race for quantum supremacy is still on.

Current quantum computers have around 60 qubits but further developments follow each other in rapid succession and ambitions are high. Last September, IBM announced a road map for the development of its quantum computers, including its goal to build a quantum computer with 1000 qubits by 2023 (source). Google has its own plan to build a million-qubit quantum computer by 2029 (source).

With 1000-qubit quantum computers, so-called Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) computers, we can already see some valuable practical applications in material design, drug discovery or logistics. The coming five to ten years therefore will be incredibly exciting for quantum computing.

Quantum technologies have the potential to bring profound new capabilities, enabling us to sense the insensible, transforming cybersecurity, and enabling us to solve problems we have never been able to solve before.

In the defence and security environment, two applications will have particularly significant implications in the near- to mid-term.

Firstly, quantum sensing. Quantum sensors have some promising military applications. For example, quantum sensors could be used to detect submarines and stealth aircraft, and quantum sensors could be used for Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT). Such ‘quantum PNT devices’ could be used as reliable inertial navigation systems, which enable navigation without the need for external references such as GPS. This would be a game-changing capability for underwater navigation on submarines, for instance, but also as a back-up navigation system for above-water platforms in case of GPS signal loss.

The first quantum sensors are already commercially available, making it the most mature technology out of sensing, communications and computing. Moreover, for quantum communications and computing, the civilian sector is expected to drive developments forward, given the immense potential value they have for civil industry. However, for quantum sensing, potential applications such as quantum PNT and quantum radar are particularly interesting for the military. Therefore, it is up to the military to fund, support and guide research and development in this area to make these potential applications a reality.

Secondly, the ‘quantum threat’ posed by quantum computing. As mentioned in the previous section, the factorisation of integers is one type of problem that quantum computers can solve particularly efficiently. Most of our digital infrastructure and basically anything we do online – whether that is video conferencing, sending e-mails or accessing our online bank account – is encrypted through cryptographic protocols based on the difficulty of solving these kinds of integer factorisation problems (e.g. the RSA algorithm). While practically usable quantum computers still need to be developed, the quantum algorithm to solve these problems and to decrypt our digital communication, i.e. Shor’s algorithm, has already been invented in 1994 and is waiting for a quantum computer capable of running it.

To illustrate, the figure below is an example of an integer factorisation problem as used to secure potentially sensitive information.

 Example of an integer factorisation problem, which forms the basis of our current cybersecurity systems. (source)

Example of an integer factorisation problem, which forms the basis of our current cybersecurity systems. (source)

While you might think that any graphic calculator would be able to solve this seemingly simple mathematical problem, in fact, the world’s fastest supercomputer would take the whole lifetime of the universe to solve it. A quantum computer, however, would be able to solve it in a couple of minutes (source).

This is an urgent threat to society writ large but also specifically to the military, given the importance of secure communication and secure information for defence and security. To counter this threat, we will have to completely upgrade all our secure digital infrastructure using cryptography that is ‘quantum-resistant’, i.e. secure against both quantum and classical computers. One option would be to wait for quantum communication (QKD or quantum teleportation) to mature and use this quantum technology to protect against the other quantum technology. However, time is not on our side. Not only could quantum computing technology outpace quantum communication development, the threat is already present. With the prospect of future quantum computers, hackers could steal encrypted information today, store it and decrypt it in 10-15 years using a future quantum computer.

The better option is to implement ‘Post-Quantum Cryptography’ (PQC), new classical (i.e. non-quantum) cryptographic algorithms that even quantum computers will not be able to solve. Currently, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is leading an international competition to select the PQC algorithm(s) to be standardised and adopted across the globe. The process started in 2016 and in July 2020 the NIST announced it had seven final candidates.

We can expect the NIST to make its final selection for standardisation by early 2022 and establish actual standards by 2024 (source). Decision-makers across industries and within the military should pencil these dates in their diaries, start preparing for a big cybersecurity upgrade and make sure we hit the ground running.

New advances in quantum technology research and development have the potential to bring exciting new capabilities to the military. Given the sizable interest and funding for quantum technologies coming from both civilian industry and governments, it is expected that the technology will mature and that new quantum applications will become available in the coming five to ten years. However, for Allied militaries to be able to actually reap the benefits of these new quantum technologies, it is essential that Allies proactively engage in this field and guide the development and adoption of the military applications of quantum technologies. This should include not just engaging with big technology companies, but specifically also with start-ups, universities and research institutes as these are vital for innovation in these new technologies.

Allied militaries could bring significant added value to existing efforts in industry and academia by providing testing & validation infrastructure (test centres) and access to end-user military operators. Early experimentation with these technologies not only contributes to their further development, but also enables the military to become familiar with these technologies and their capabilities, which helps facilitate future adoption. Moreover, active participation in the quantum ecosystem increases the military’s understanding of the potential risks associated to quantum technologies, specifically within the cyber domain.